科目名：マクロ経済学�V(Macroeconomics III)

担当者：経済研究所・助教授　岩本　康志

期間・単位：後期・２単位

授業時間：金曜日４時限

教室：第１共同研究室（経済研究所103）

　マクロ経済学の応用コースとして，貯蓄をめぐる話題を講義する。最近の関心を呼んでいる，以下のようなトピックをとりあげる予定である。

　　予備的動機，自己保険，消費保険，貯蓄優遇税制，貯蓄の利子弾力性，世代間所得移転，遺産動機，ライフサイクル貯蓄，高齢化と貯蓄，公的年金の民営化

　暫定的な文献リストは下の通りであるが，第１回授業時により詳細な講義予定を配布する。

　内容理解のために適宜宿題を与える。

　受講者は，大学院基礎科目の「ミクロ経済学」，「マクロ経済学」，「計量経済学」をすでに履修していることが望ましい。

　成績評価は，宿題と期末に課す小論文（8000字程度）を基準にする。

1. Precautionary Saving

1.1 Deviations from certainty equivalence

Zeldes, Stephen P. (1989), "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 104, No. 2, May, 275-298.

Caballero, Ricardo J. (1990), "Consumption Puzzles and Precautionary Savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 25, No. 1, 113-136.

Kimball, Miles, and Philippe Weil (1992), "Precautionary Saving and Consumption Smoothing Across Time and Possibilities," NBER Working Paper, No. 3976.

1.2 Self insurance

Deaton, Angus (1991), "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Vol. 59, No. 5, September, 1221-1248.

Carroll, Christopher D., and Lawrence H. Summers (1991), "Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth: Some New Evidence," in B. Douglas Bernheim and John B. Shoven eds., National Saving and Economic Performance (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), 305-343.

Carroll, Christopher D. (1996), "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Paper, No. 5788.

2. Tax-based Incentives

Feldstein, Martin (1995), "The Effects of Tax-Based Saving Incentives on Government Revenue and National Saving," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 110, No. 2, May, 475-494.

Hubbard, R. Glenn, and Jonathan S. Skinner (1996), "Assessing the Effectiveness of Saving Incentives," NBER Working paper, No. 5686.

Engen, Eric M. , William G. Gale, and John Karl Scholz (1996), "The Effects of Tax-Based Saving Incentives on Saving and Wealth," NBER Working Paper, No. 5759.

Poterba, James M. , Steven F. Venti, and David A. Wise (1996), "Personal Retirement Saving Programs and Asset Accumulation: Reconciling the Evidence," NBER Working Paper, No. 5599.

Venti, Steven F. and David A. Wise (1996), "The Wealth of Cohorts: Retirement Saving and the Changing Assets of Older Americans," NBER Working Paper, No. 5609.

Poterba, James M., Steven F. Venti and David A. Wise (1995), "Do 401(k) Contributions Crowd Out Other Personal Saving?" Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 58, No. 1, September, 1-32.

3. Intergenerational transfers

Kotlikoff, Laurence J., and Lawrence H. Summers (1981), "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 89, No. 4, August, 706-732.

Modigliani, Franco (1986), "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 3, June, 297-313.

Kotlikoff, Laurence J., and Lawrence H. Summers (1986), "The Contribution of Intergenerational Transfers to Total Wealth: a Reply," NBER Working Paper, No. 1827.

Modigliani, Franco (1988), "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers and Life Cycle Saving in the Accumulation of Wealth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 2, No. 2, 15-40.

Kotlikoff, Laurence J. (1988), "Intergenerational Transfers and Savings," Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 2, No. 2, 41-58.

Bernheim, B. Douglas (1991), "How Strong Are Bequest Motives? Evidence Based on Estimates of the Demand for Life Insurance and Annuities," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 99, No. 5, 899-927.

Auerbach, Alan J. , Jagadeesh Gokhale, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, John Sabelhaus, and David N. Weil (1995), "The Annuitization of Americans' Resources: A Cohort Analysis," NBER Working Paper, No. 5089.

4. Aging Population

Cutler, David M., James M. Poterba, Louise M. Sheiner, and Lawrence H. Summers (1990), "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, 1-73.

Auerbach, Alan J., and Laurence J. Kotlikoff (1990), "Demographics, Fiscal Policy, and U.S. Saving in the 1980s and Beyond," in Lawrence H. Summers ed., Tax Policy and the Economy 4, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 73-101

Auerbach, Alan J. , Jinyong Cai and Laurence J. Kotlikoff (1991), "U.S. Demographics and Saving: Predictions of Three Saving Models," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 34, 135-156.

5. Privatizing Social Security

Feldstein, Martin (1995), "Would Privatizing Social Security Raise Economic Welfare?" NBER Working Paper, No. 5281.

Feldstein, Martin (1996), "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Working Paper, No. 5761.

Kotlikoff, Laurence J. (1996), "Privatization of Social Security: How it Works and Why it Matters," in James M. Poterba ed., Tax Policy and the Economy 10 (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press), 1-32.

Kotlikoff, Laurence J. (1996), "Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Paper, Vol. 5776.